LESSON FROM PAKISTAN
Analysts are skeptical Afghan leader’s overture will alter Taliban policy
Sonya Fatah
THE TORONTO STAR, September 24, 2007
ISLAMABAD–As Canadian policymakers debate the possibility of a negotiated settlement to the Afghanistan conflict, the experience of neighbouring Pakistan in dealing with the Taliban offers a lesson in political realities.
When Afghan President Hamid Karzai summoned Canadian journalists to his palace in Kabul last week, he made a point of stressing the need to talk to the Taliban. Despite contradictory comments by purported Taliban members quoted in the media – such as preconditions that all foreign troops must first depart – Karzai insisted that reliable communication channels are opening up.
But in Pakistan, analysts remain skeptical that Karzai’s overtures are anything more than routine rhetoric, or that the Taliban are in a position to speak with one voice at a time when the battlefield remains in a state of flux.
Indeed, the Pakistani experience in negotiating with Afghan players along the border – diehard Taliban or ethnic Pashtun – has been an exercise in frustration.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has been pushing direct negotiations for the past few years but with no concrete results to show for his efforts. A Pakistan-Afghanistan peace jirga (conference) held in Kabul over four days in early August was meant to decrease tensions on either side of the border.
That such a jirga was organized has been seen as a positive development, but critics say such efforts are superficial. Moreover, Karzai’s talks suggestion seems difficult to orchestrate given the response from Taliban representatives. Any dialogue is dependent upon the withdrawal of foreign armies, including 2,500 Canadian troops, Taliban elements have told the media. Such a withdrawal appears highly unlikely in the current setting.
“There is a lot of unnecessary excitement about Karzai’s comments,” said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a veteran journalist, who heads the Peshawar bureau of the English daily, The News. “There is nothing new in these proclamations.”
A month after the Kabul jirga, little has been done to push the bilateral peace process. A 50-member joint committee remains unformed. Neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan has nominated the 25 representatives that were to be a part of the reconciliation process.
“There is no change in Taliban policy,” said Yusufzai. “There is no change in Karzai’s policy. The peace jirga was just a political gathering with no real outcome.”
Moreover, critics say the meeting was something of a sham. A real jirga, they note, is a democratic process that can take anywhere from 15 to 30 days to conclude.
In Afghanistan, the meeting was seen as a positive step but many criticized the overtly Pashtun nature of the jirga, which excluded other ethnic groups.
“I think the jirga shows that everyone has realized that the best way to solve the current problem is through negotiations,” said Misbahullah Abdul Baqi, associate professor at International Islamic University, Islamabad. “Even the Pashtun nationalists who were at the table were saying they were for talks.”
One reason for Karzai’s interest in discussions has been tied to his Pashtun ethnicity. He is under considerable pressure to address the issue and to be seen as more than just Kabul’s ruler. And while Afghanistan deals with a more resilient insurgency, Pakistan is facing its own problems as recruits from the tribal areas head east into the country to set off suicide bombs.
In both countries now, the targets are government officials who are seen to be pro-Western.
“It’s not just the Taliban,” said Misbahullah. “If you look at Pakistan – the entire tribal region from Darra Adam Khel onwards is filled with Taliban sympathizers. They have used military solutions in Waziristan (tribal area) but that has not worked. So, I feel there is a change in mentality because all other options have been exercised and have failed.”
What that means in terms of real concrete steps is difficult to ascertain. Long-time insiders say that Pakistan’s hands are tied because of its allegiance to the United States.
“There is no independent Pakistan policy on Afghanistan at the moment,” says retired Gen. Hameed Gul, former chief of the Inter Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s top spy agency that has been credited for creating and encouraging the Taliban to further Pakistan’s policy of strategic depth in the region.
A combination of military solutions and negotiations have served to swell the rising tide of extremism within Pakistan, increasing the number of suicide attacks and anger towards the Pakistani government, says Gul, who believes the Taliban have been alienated as a result of Musharraf’s policies.
Six years later, Pakistan has little power to negotiate with the Taliban, who now view its government as an extension of the American war on terror. “The Taliban simply don’t trust Pakistan anymore,” says Gul. “They are looking less and less towards Pakistan, and instead developing some kind of a relationship with Iran.”
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