Archive for September, 2007

India’s about-face on junta

Saturday, September 29th, 2007

Crackdown expanded to email, cellphones

The Toronto Star, September 29, 2007
SONYA FATAH

NEW DELHI–For years, India supported the pro-democracy movement in neighbouring Burma.

Burmese students found safe passage into and through India and were given scholarships to attend university here.

Its leaders in exile had friends in high places. But 10 years ago, a change in policy changed ties.

Partnerships with the Burmese military, geopolitical agendas and stakes in the region for India’s big and upcoming businesses have shifted India’s allegiances away from those advocating democracy for its military-run neighbour.

A few protests and demonstrations outside the Burmese embassy and India’s parliament aren’t getting much attention from India’s government or media.

But pro-democracy activists, who believe India’s support for Burma’s ruling military junta is betraying the memory of former leader and peace icon Mahatma Gandhi, say the Indian public still supports their struggle.

This week, the Indian government finally commented on the junta’s violent suppression of monk-led anti-government protests, calling for political reform but at the same time suggesting it was an internal Burmese problem.

Moreover, high-level Indian officials were in Burma, also known as Myanmar, this week discussing bilateral relations, suggesting India’s friendship with the generals isn’t on the wane.

“India has a big economic stake in Burma …,” says Tapan Bose, secretary general of the South Asia Forum for Human Rights.

“The petroleum minister has run off to Myanmar. That would indicate that we are certainly quite deeply involved.”

India’s close relations with pro-democracy leaders started to change in the early 1990s as China’s influence in the region began to surge. India began to look for regional partnerships to boost its own influence.

The new policy was called “engagement with the regime.”

“This was part of India’s `Look East’ policy, and it was meant to increase border trade, exchange of visitors, and military aid,” says Tint Swe, a member of the parliament in the exiled National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma.

G. Parthasarathy, India’s ambassador to Burma between 1992 and 1995, says security fears helped shape India’s new policy.

“The prospect of the Chinese getting facilities in the Bay of Bengal and along our border became a matter of security concern.”

India was also fighting a serious and growing insurgency in four states along its 1,600-kilometre northeastern border and wanted Burma’s help keeping the lid on.

Today, business ties provide much of the glue bonding the two nations. Last year, India’s trade surplus with Burma reached $400 million.

Oil, a rich and mostly untapped resource in Burma, is fuelling a new Indo-Sino rivalry as China plans a pipeline in Burma and is leading the race to sign a contract for natural gas from a soon-to-be-developed offshore field in Sittwe, in the Arakan region.

India wants the gas to help develop its troublesome northeastern region and Burmese democracy isn’t needed for that, as witnessed by India’s visit to sign offshore agreements last week.

Critics say that India’s cozying up is not only a betrayal of former friends in the pro-democracy movement, it’s also a futile effort to catch up with China.

Several months ago, Burma sold gas from two fields to China, shutting out Indian firms who had a 30 per cent stake in the deal.

“India is too far behind,” says Swe. “Mandalay is overrun by the Chinese. There is a lot of Chinese influence in Burma. And the military is just playing the Indians and the Chinese against each other.”

If India has little to gain from Burmese democracy, China has even less so.

“China’s main concern would be that democratic change is infectious, and calls for change could spread into neighbouring Chinese territory,” says Parthasarathy, the former ambassador.

“Unless they have a change in policy, we aren’t going to. So no, nothing will change now.”

Still, the flame of support for democracy in Burma hasn’t been completely doused in India.

Veteran MP Nirmala Deshpande, who leads a forum of Indian parliamentarians for democracy in Burma, says she has collected a million signatures in support of the cause.

“The movement that is being carrying out in Burma is a non-violent movement. It is the duty of all Gandhians to support this movement.”

Popularity: 4% [?]

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Musharraf’s push to talk with rebels frustrating exercise

Monday, September 24th, 2007

LESSON FROM PAKISTAN

Analysts are skeptical Afghan leader’s overture will alter Taliban policy

Sonya Fatah
THE TORONTO STAR, September 24, 2007

ISLAMABAD–As Canadian policymakers debate the possibility of a negotiated settlement to the Afghanistan conflict, the experience of neighbouring Pakistan in dealing with the Taliban offers a lesson in political realities.

When Afghan President Hamid Karzai summoned Canadian journalists to his palace in Kabul last week, he made a point of stressing the need to talk to the Taliban. Despite contradictory comments by purported Taliban members quoted in the media – such as preconditions that all foreign troops must first depart – Karzai insisted that reliable communication channels are opening up.

But in Pakistan, analysts remain skeptical that Karzai’s overtures are anything more than routine rhetoric, or that the Taliban are in a position to speak with one voice at a time when the battlefield remains in a state of flux.

Indeed, the Pakistani experience in negotiating with Afghan players along the border – diehard Taliban or ethnic Pashtun – has been an exercise in frustration.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has been pushing direct negotiations for the past few years but with no concrete results to show for his efforts. A Pakistan-Afghanistan peace jirga (conference) held in Kabul over four days in early August was meant to decrease tensions on either side of the border.

That such a jirga was organized has been seen as a positive development, but critics say such efforts are superficial. Moreover, Karzai’s talks suggestion seems difficult to orchestrate given the response from Taliban representatives. Any dialogue is dependent upon the withdrawal of foreign armies, including 2,500 Canadian troops, Taliban elements have told the media. Such a withdrawal appears highly unlikely in the current setting.

“There is a lot of unnecessary excitement about Karzai’s comments,” said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a veteran journalist, who heads the Peshawar bureau of the English daily, The News. “There is nothing new in these proclamations.”

A month after the Kabul jirga, little has been done to push the bilateral peace process. A 50-member joint committee remains unformed. Neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan has nominated the 25 representatives that were to be a part of the reconciliation process.

“There is no change in Taliban policy,” said Yusufzai. “There is no change in Karzai’s policy. The peace jirga was just a political gathering with no real outcome.”

Moreover, critics say the meeting was something of a sham. A real jirga, they note, is a democratic process that can take anywhere from 15 to 30 days to conclude.

In Afghanistan, the meeting was seen as a positive step but many criticized the overtly Pashtun nature of the jirga, which excluded other ethnic groups.

“I think the jirga shows that everyone has realized that the best way to solve the current problem is through negotiations,” said Misbahullah Abdul Baqi, associate professor at International Islamic University, Islamabad. “Even the Pashtun nationalists who were at the table were saying they were for talks.”

One reason for Karzai’s interest in discussions has been tied to his Pashtun ethnicity. He is under considerable pressure to address the issue and to be seen as more than just Kabul’s ruler. And while Afghanistan deals with a more resilient insurgency, Pakistan is facing its own problems as recruits from the tribal areas head east into the country to set off suicide bombs.

In both countries now, the targets are government officials who are seen to be pro-Western.

“It’s not just the Taliban,” said Misbahullah. “If you look at Pakistan – the entire tribal region from Darra Adam Khel onwards is filled with Taliban sympathizers. They have used military solutions in Waziristan (tribal area) but that has not worked. So, I feel there is a change in mentality because all other options have been exercised and have failed.”

What that means in terms of real concrete steps is difficult to ascertain. Long-time insiders say that Pakistan’s hands are tied because of its allegiance to the United States.

“There is no independent Pakistan policy on Afghanistan at the moment,” says retired Gen. Hameed Gul, former chief of the Inter Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s top spy agency that has been credited for creating and encouraging the Taliban to further Pakistan’s policy of strategic depth in the region.

A combination of military solutions and negotiations have served to swell the rising tide of extremism within Pakistan, increasing the number of suicide attacks and anger towards the Pakistani government, says Gul, who believes the Taliban have been alienated as a result of Musharraf’s policies.

Six years later, Pakistan has little power to negotiate with the Taliban, who now view its government as an extension of the American war on terror. “The Taliban simply don’t trust Pakistan anymore,” says Gul. “They are looking less and less towards Pakistan, and instead developing some kind of a relationship with Iran.”

Popularity: 4% [?]

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Bhutto plans her return to Karachi

Saturday, September 15th, 2007

Political sources say exiled former PM expected to face slew of corruption charges

SONYA FATAH
THE TORONTO STAR, Sep 15, 2007

ISLAMABAD–With one former prime minister put on a plane and whisked off to Saudi Arabia, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has one popular opponent out of the way.
But Benazir Bhutto is a tougher candidate, and the leader of the Pakistan People’s Party plans to return to Karachi on Oct. 18, ending her self-imposed exile.
Bhutto’s announcement yesterday comes at the end of a sobering week for the country’s president.
Bhutto, 56, said Pakistan needs to return to civilian rule as it prepares for parliamentary elections that must be held by January.
“This will strengthen our efforts for democracy,” Bhutto, who lives in exile in Dubai and London, told Pakistan’s Geo television. “Democracy should be restored completely and the army removed from the scene.”
Nawaz Sharif, leader of one of the largest opposition parties, was exiled for a second time on Monday.
Protests followed and a series of petitions charging the government with contempt of court were filed in the country’s top court.
An alleged suicide attack this week left 26 dead at one of the military’s best-guarded bases, home to an elite commando unit, stirring speculation of disgruntlement within the barracks or in the intelligence agencies.
Meanwhile, the nine-member bench of the Supreme Court is scheduled to decide Monday whether Gen. Musharraf, also head of Pakistan’s military, has the constitutional right to keep his uniform. The ruling party PML-Q has also announced that Sehba Musharraf, the president’s wife who has no political experience, is being considered a favourite “covering candidate” for the position of president, a practice that is not uncommon in South Asia.
The move to push Sehba Musharraf into the presidency could allow Musharraf to keep his uniform for a fresh 5-year term and is being widely seen as an attempt by ruling party members to keep Bhutto out of contention.
“It’s a sham but it’s completely legal,” says Tariq Rahim, a lawyer in the former government of Lahore and a staunch supporter of the PPP.
The government has said Bhutto is free to return to Pakistan but that charges of corruption that have been levied against her and her husband will not be dropped. Bhutto, who left Pakistan eight years ago amid the corruption allegations, has been negotiating with Musharraf on the possibility of combining their political forces to share power after elections.
In the battle of political rivals, however, Bhutto has emerged the winner. Unlike Sharif, she has long experience with political oppression. She watched her father hanged, has spent years in jail and has seen many members of her party tried and tested for their anti-establishment views.
But she has many serious hurdles to overcome including a dubious political track record, the corruption charges and a constitutional amendment preventing a twice-before prime minister from returning to the top job.

Popularity: 2% [?]

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Sharif’s next battle to be played out in court

Wednesday, September 12th, 2007

Backers demand former PM’s return to Pakistan
September 12, 2007

Sonya Fatah

ISLAMABAD–When former prime minister Nawaz Sharif declared his intention to return to Pakistan, President Gen. Pervez Musharraf had two options: allow the leader to enter the country and stoke the passion of popular opinion, or deport him and come up against the judiciary again.

He chose the latter.

What happens as a result of that decision will play itself out in Pakistan’s courts over the next few days and help the country’s other exiled former leader, Benazir Bhutto, chart her own return journey.

Supporters of the twice-exiled Sharif and of his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, filed a petition in the country’s top court yesterday demanding he be allowed to return home. Three weeks ago, the court, headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry, ruled Sharif, 57, had a constitutional right to return to Pakistan, and ordered that no pressure be applied to prevent him from entering the country.

But Pakistan’s military government moved harshly against Sharif on Monday, deporting him within hours of his arrival in Islamabad and arresting almost the entire leadership of his party as they tried to travel to the airport to greet him.

Speculation is rampant over whether the Supreme Court will carry on its activist stance and take the U.S.-backed government of Musharraf to task.

A verdict in Sharif’s favour won’t bring the now-exiled leader back from Saudi Arabia, where he has spent most of the last seven years. Any decision about his return would require the Supreme Court to confront Saudi Arabia, a country that has enjoyed a special relationship with Pakistan.

Chaudhury Aitzaz Ahsan, a lawyer and member of the opposition Pakistani People’s Party, believes the government can he accused and tried for abduction.

If convicted, he says, Musharraf could be jailed for seven years.

The Supreme Court can take the government to task by ruling that it is in contempt of court. That would spark a serious confrontation between the judiciary and Musharraf, who also heads the army.

There is a strong expectation that the court will rule against the government. But there are also signs of cleavage within the judiciary. Many lawyers and retired judges spoke out against the treatment meted out to Sharif.

But Pakistani Attorney General Malik Qayyum said the government followed the Supreme Court’s orders when it allowed Sharif to enter the country. Sharif, he said, left of his own will.

“There will be very serious repercussions if the Supreme Court decided to rule against the government and take Saudi Arabia to task,” said an influential lawyer.

Meanwhile, Bhutto is in London watching the drama unfold in her homeland. The paltry public support demonstrated for Sharif has boosted Bhutto’s recently weakened bid for a power-sharing agreement with Musharraf.

Sharif, who was prime minister from 1990 to 1993 and 1997 to 1999, was convicted of corruption and treason and sentenced to 14 years in jail after his 1999 ouster. Musharraf pardoned him in 2000 under a deal by which Sharif was to be exiled in Saudi Arabia for 10 years.

Popularity: 2% [?]

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Sharif sent back to exile

Tuesday, September 11th, 2007

Former leader’s return to challenge Musharraf foiled when he’s flown right back to Saudi Arabia

Sonya Fatah
THE TORONTO STAR

September 11, 2007

ISLAMABAD–Military muscle put an end to a former Pakistan prime minister’s game of political hop-scotch, forcing Nawaz Sharif to return to Saudi Arabia, the place of his initial exile more than seven years ago.

Sharif had hoped to return to his homeland yesterday greeted by an adoring, admiring public a few weeks after Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled in favour of his “inalienable right of return.”

Instead, thousands of his supporters were arrested, black-booted commandos formed a perimeter around his aircraft and he was taken into custody and charged with corruption. Sharif was then spirited to another plane and flown back to the Saudi city of Jiddah.

In Islamabad, the government defended its decision to deport Sharif in defiance of the court order, claiming it was in the “supreme interest” of the country, Associated Press reported.

Sharif’s forced exit from the political arena could deepen the growing unpopularity of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, the U.S.-allied general who seized power in 1999, and weaken the Pakistani public’s faith that free and fair general elections will return.

By disregarding the Supreme Court’s right of return ruling, Musharraf also seems to have set up another showdown with the judiciary. His firing earlier this year of Supreme Court Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry triggered upheaval across the country and was overturned by the Supreme Court in July.

Sharif’s ejection could also hasten the return of another former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, and cement a power-sharing arrangement between Musharraf and Bhutto.

Yesterday, supporters of Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz group, didn’t raise much of a stink over his hasty deportation.

There were scattered protests in his traditional stronghold, Punjab – the largest and wealthiest of Pakistan’s provinces – but the arrests of key PML-N leaders may account for some of the silence.

Sharif’s supporters called a nationwide strike and demonstrations for today but many supporters in Lahore said they preferred to remain silent for fear of sacrificing their political and financial freedoms.

On the street, the public view was divided.

“We’ve been on duty for over 24 hours,” said one airport security official at Islamabad airport where security was tightened and increased in advance of Sharif’s arrival.

“We wear this uniform so we have no choice but to follow orders. But what they did to Mr. Sharif today was wrong,” he added.

Many Pakistanis feel for Sharif but few are expected to take to the streets of Islamabad or Lahore to call for his return or the restoration of full democracy not seen since Musharraf led a coup that ousted the democratically elected Sharif.

Instead of feeling galvanized, many expressed general frustration with their political leaders at home and in exile.

“Whatever they did to (Sharif) at the airport was unacceptable,” said Mohammad Hafeez, who drives a rental car at Islamabad’s airport and found himself outside the security perimeter in the morning.

“But you know what? They’re all thieves. Musharraf, Bhutto, Nawaz. What do they care for us?”

Popularity: 2% [?]

Posted in Pakistan, The Toronto Star | No Comments »